The anticipation is palpable as we approach the earnings reports of the three major ASX miners: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG). Scheduled for release on 20, 21, and 22 February respectively, these reports are not just financial snapshots; they are windows into the dividend landscape that income investors eagerly eye.


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ASX Mining Shares: A Haven for Dividend Seekers

ASX mining shares have solidified their reputation as some of the market's most generous dividend payers. Investors, especially those with an affinity for consistent passive income, have found a reliable ally in these well-established, mature businesses. Year after year, these mining giants churn out substantial profits, making them a go-to choice for dividend-focused portfolios.

The Iron Ore Factor

The heartbeat of these mining powerhouses is intricately tied to the price movements of iron ore. In recent times, the iron ore market has been on a rollercoaster ride, witnessing a volatile yet upward trajectory since May 2023. From approximately US$98 per tonne in May to soaring beyond US$130 per tonne today, the surge in commodity prices promises to significantly impact the upcoming earnings season.

Earnings Report Schedule

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is poised to kick off the earnings season by revealing its 1H FY24 results on 20 February. As the curtain lifts on BHP's financial performance, investors keenly await not just the figures but also the dividend announcement that accompanies the results.

Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)

On 21 February, the spotlight shifts to Rio Tinto, set to release its FY23 full-year results. With a track record of robust dividends, the market eagerly awaits the revelation of Rio Tinto's financial prowess, amplified by the prevailing iron ore prices.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

Fortescue, a major player in the mining realm, will step into the limelight on 22 February to share its half-year results. As the third of the trio, Fortescue's performance will undoubtedly contribute to shaping the narrative of the overall mining sector.

Dividend Projections: A Closer Look

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

In 2023, BHP shares generously paid $2.6143 in annual dividends, fully franked. According to the consensus forecast on CommSec, 2024 is projected to see BHP shares offering an annual dividend of $2.399. At the current BHP share price of $45.82, this equates to an enticing dividend yield of 5.24%.

Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)

In 2023, Rio Tinto outshone with annual dividends amounting to $5.8738, fully franked. Looking ahead to 2024, the consensus forecast predicts Rio Tinto shares will deliver an annual dividend of $7.689. With the current Rio Tinto share price standing at $128.25, investors could enjoy a substantial yield of 6%.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

Fortescue, known for its strategic presence, paid $1.75 in annual dividends, coupled with full franking credits, in 2023. The consensus forecast for 2024 suggests a projected annual dividend of $2.132. Anchored by the current Fortescue share price of $28.18, this sets the stage for a robust yield of 7.57%.

Deciphering the Numbers

In the realm of yields, Fortescue emerges as the frontrunner, promising a more lucrative return than its counterparts, BHP and Rio Tinto, in 2024. However, in dollar terms, Rio Tinto takes the lead, offering a higher payout, underscoring the importance of considering both metrics when evaluating investment decisions.

Conclusion

As the ASX mining giants prepare to unveil their financial performances, investors are at the edge of their seats, ready to navigate the dividend landscape. While Fortescue promises an impressive yield, Rio Tinto commands attention with substantial dollar returns. The choice between yield and absolute dividends remains a nuanced decision for investors.